28, 2021: The vast majority of GOP Senators have come out against impeachment, mostly on the grounds that the Senate is not permitted to hold a trial after Trump has left office. The betting market on impeachment heavily favors no conviction. “Yes” is at a paltry 5% implied probability. Online sportsbooks such as BetOnline have released Trump impeachment odds for the trial beginning in early February. The Trump impeachment odds on whether the Senate will convict him for incitement have the “No” option heavily favored at -5000 with “Yes” coming back at +1200.

1. Vegas Betting Line On Trump Impeachment
2. Trump Impeachment Betting Line

Sometimes betting is all about calling bluffs.

In a likely “tell” of Donald Trump’s Senate trial outcome, after the first day of hearings in the upper chamber yesterday, a vote was held to determine the constitutionality of continuing impeachment proceedings against a private citizen.

As an impeachment and its ensuing trial are specifically designed to remove a public servant from office, it is likely unconstitutional to try a private individual in this context.

Nevertheless, six GOP Senators broke ranks to approve of the trial’s continuation on constitutional grounds.

The final vote was 56-44, with the following Republicans joining their colleagues across the aisle:

• Ben Sasse
• Pat Toomey
• Susan Collins
• Lisa Murkowski
• Mitt Romney
• Bill Cassidy

If you’ve been paying attention, you are no doubt aware that Bovada has had US Senate betting lines posted regarding how many Senators would vote to convict the former president on “incitement” grounds after he made this statement on January 6:

“I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.”

Now, regardless of your personal feelings about the former President, there is no rational or logical way to frame the above words as incitement to riot, incitement of rebellion, incitement of violence, or incitement of anything else except the peaceable exercise of every American’s first amendment rights to free assembly.

But we digress, as the merit of the case – just like last time – plays second fiddle to the narrative of the case.

Of course, for US political bettors, even that is functionally irrelevant.

Vegas Betting Line On Trump Impeachment

What matters here are the odds and whether or not you can find a betting edge with the new information presented at the top of this article.

And we believe you can!

As of the time of this writing, the odds at Bovada on Senate conviction look like this:

2021 Trump Odds On Senate Conviction

Via Bovada Sportsbook

How many US Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement charges?

• 55 Or 56 +180
• 53 Or 54 +210
• 51 Or 52 +800
• 57 Or 58 +800
• 50 Or Fewer +1600
• 67 Or More +1600
• 59 Or 60 +2000
• 61 Or 62 +5000
• 63 Or 64 +10000
• 65 Or 66 +10000

Amazingly, yesterday’s vote – which saw six GOPers side with the left – has not moved the lines an inch.

Given that “55 Or 56” was the favorite, and given that exactly six Republicans voted to carry on with the trial, we would have expected the lines to move dramatically, with the favored outcome dropping into the negative.

But that hasn’t happened, which means that if the final vote to convict is in line with yesterday’s vote to continue, you stand to make a pretty penny.

However, that’s not actually the line we like best.

Remember, this is politics and political theater, after all.

There’s a very good chance that at least two of these pols – most probably Ben Sasse and Bill Cassidy – will eventually vote to acquit Trump.

Why?

Sasse and Cassidy represent Nebraska and Louisiana, respectively, and both states are heavily in Trump’s corner.

In the 2020 Presidential election, Trump beat Joe Biden in Nebraska 58.51% to 39.36%, taking 91 of the state’s 93 counties.

In Louisiana, Trump beat Biden 58.46% to 39.85%, taking 54 of the state’s 64 parishes.

Neither Sasse nor Cassidy – both in just their first terms as US Senators – likely wish to commit career suicide, and by voting to carry on with the Senate trial, they have an out when they later vote to acquit.

Expect their argument to go something like this:

“We wanted to see the trial through in good faith so the prosecution would have the chance to present its evidence and the defendant would have a chance to respond to his accusers. This process is the foundation of all American jurisprudence.”

All things considered, then, “53 Or 54” at +210 is the best bet here, and the payout is pretty decent.

That’s where we’re putting our money, and if you like our rationale, that’s where you should put yours, too.

Is it legal to bet on whether or not former President Donald Trump will be impeached again? Is it legal to bet on Biden Impeachment now that Dementia Joe is in office? Well, there is no more hot-button issue in politics these days than Presidential impeachment. It doesn’t happen often, but when articles of impeachment are considered or brought against a sitting US President, you can expect there to be significant interest from the betting public.

Presidential impeachment odds are extremely popular when offered by offshore political betting sites and sportsbooks as a general rule, but the debate surrounding Donald Trump's impeachments were the loudest and most polarizing in the history of America.

If you think you know how the political world is trending on the subject of Presidential impeachment, it makes sense to put a few dollars on your hunch. However, to do so, you’ve got to know where to legally bet on impeachment odds in the first place, so read on to find out!

Is It Legal To Bet On Presidential Impeachment?

Yes, you can wager on Presidential impeachment at any reputable sportsbook that offers lines on it. However, we have yet to find the opportunity to do so at any domestic US betting sites or brick-and-mortar venues, as political betting seems to be shunned (or even legally banned) by US-regulated sportsbooks. As a result, your best option is to use an offshore election betting site in order to get in on the action.

There are no federal online gambling laws that make it a crime to place bets on politics or to do so at offshore betting sites that are operating legally within the industry. Both CT and WA do have state laws prohibiting all forms of online gambling, but those laws are not historically enforced, and we’re not aware of a single resident ever being “impeached” for gambling over the Internet. However, when you wager online in these states, understand that you do so at your own risk.

Best Legal Online Sportsbooks To Bet On Presidential Impeachment

In 2019, the United States House of Representatives successfully impeached President Donald J. Trump and handed his fate over to the US Senate. The Republican-controlled Senate overturned the impeachment and acquitted President Trump, allowing him to resume his term of office.

In January 2021, Trump became the first US President to be impeached twice, as the House Democrats tried to pop him on charges of 'incitement of insurrection.' By the time Trump's second impeachment trial got to the Senate, he was already a private citizen again, and the Senate voted to acquit him on Saturday, Feb. 13, 2021.

However, you will still likely find Trump impeachment odds going forward, as now that there is precedent to impeach a public official after their term in office, we expect Trump to be impeached practically ad infinitum. After all, the news needs something to report on!

Will Donald Trump be impeached again?

Probably. He's already been impeached twice (2019, 2021) and acquitted twice. And because Trump was a private citizen for his second impeachment trial in the Senate, there is now procedural precedent to keep impeaching him forever.

For bettors, future Trump impeachment would be an interesting proposition (bet), as it would require close analysis of the current political climate in a context that doesn't really include the accused party.

Strange times are ahead, and a third Trump impeachment could be part of them. But if you expect the third time to be the charm, we'd advise not betting against The Donald.

Did Trump Get Impeached?

Yes, and twice! In 2019, the Democrat-controlled US House of Representatives successfully impeached President Trump for the charges of 'abuse of power.' He was impeached by a vote of 230-197, with almost all votes falling along party lines. Trump was not removed from the White House, however, as the Senate, controlled by the GOP, voted to acquit him on all charges.

Trump Impeachment Betting Line

In 2021, Trump was impeached again, this time for 'incitement of insurrection.' The House voted again along party lines, sending the case to the Senate. There, 57 Senators (including seven GOP Senators) voted for conviction, far short of the 2/3 threshold required. Trump was acquitted on Saturday, February 13, 2021.

Where Can I Legally Bet on Presidential Impeachment Odds?

Impeachment betting is the most popular category or market for legal political betting right now, as news of Donald Trump’s last impeachment is still pounding the mainstream media 24/7. It is the water-cooler discussion of the last three years, and there’s no getting away from it.

As a result, many curious voters and political wagering enthusiasts are looking to place bets on future Presidential impeachment odds for other political figures. Vice Presidential impeachment is even being mentioned now.

All of the sportsbooks we recommend on this page cover the odds for Trump to be impeached, as well as the odds for Biden to be impeached. You can even expect some to offer lines on whether or not VP Kamala Harris will be impeached. Impeachment is the meme of the political now, so you should try to capitalize on it as much as possible.

Best Funding Method For Legal Impeachment Betting

While there are several ways to load up your betting accounts at legal online casinos and sportsbooks offering impeachment odds, Bitcoin is the best funding method. Bitcoin not only provides a safe, secure, anonymous way to wager on impeachment online, but it’s also the best way to receive payouts. When betting at offshore sites, Bitcoin is the only same-day withdrawal method offered.

Plus, using fiat money to bet on the ouster of the highest-ranking government officials just seems...wrong. Bitcoin takes government out of the game so you can bet on taking government out of the game! And that is unimpeachable!

Donald Trump Impeachment 2019-2021

Donald Trump won the 2016 Presidential election as a massive betting (and polling) underdog, and his victory is now the second most controversial in history (after his November 2020 loss).

Effectively half of the US population believed that Trump had outside foreign assistance, while the other half thought that Trump had been unfairly vilified by a biased media and various outspoken career politicians. That never changed during his years in office, and it's not changed now as of 2021.

In 2019, the US House of Representatives successfully impeached Donald Trump, but the US Senate acquitted him. However, Trump – despite losing reelection – was impeached again in January 2021, becoming the first POTUS to be impeached twice.

Naturally, the top sites where legal online betting is offered posted betting odds on the chances of that second impeachment occurring, as well as Trump's Senate conviction odds and other related political prop bets.

Pros And Cons Of Presidential Impeachment

Impeaching a sitting President is a huge risk for both sides of the political spectrum. The process is based on a calculus that takes into consideration any and all potential fallout from initiating the process, whether it remains an impeachment inquiry, full-blown impeachment, or removal from office.

Impeachment can have a huge effect on both Democratic election odds and Republican election odds. When betting on Presidential impeachment and assessing the impeachment chances for a given President, all these factors must be accounted for.

Pros:

• Upholding law and order to show that nobody – not even the President of the United States – is above the law
• Removing a President who has shown conduct detrimental to the domestic and national security
• Addressing and correcting perceived fraudulent activity on the part of the President or those working under their direct orders

Cons:

• Alienating significant voter blocs
• Convincing a large number of voters that their votes did not count
• Risking Congressional re-election in the US House and Senate for those supporting (or opposing) the impeachment process
• Galvanizing opposition party voter turnout in future elections, harming the party that brought impeachment charges
• Potentially delegitimizing the fundamental election process in the eyes of the President’s supporters
• Civil unrest and global instability

Presidential impeachment involves three steps:

• Congressional investigation of alleged Presidential malfeasance (usually undertaken by the House Judiciary Committee). All impeachment proceedings begin in the US House of Representatives.
• The House must pass Articles of Impeachment against the President, which is done via a simple majority (50% + 1).
• The US Senate then conducts a trial of the President. The Supreme Court Chief Justice presides over the Senate trial.

In all of US history, only three Presidents have ever been formally impeached by the US House: Andrew Johnson (1868), Bill Clinton (1998-1999), and Donald Trump (2019, 2021).

All three were acquitted in the Senate.

Notably, in 1974, President Richard Nixon resigned from office as impeachment proceedings were pending.

The official actions for which a sitting President can be impeached are fairly broad as outlined by federal law. These include “Treason, Bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.”

So, basically anything.

The US Senate has the final say on whether a President is convicted during an impeachment trial.

To remove a sitting President via impeachment, a two-thirds Senate supermajority must vote to convict (which is usually 67 votes), at which point the President would be automatically and immediately removed from office.

The impeachment process has no fixed timeline or deadline.

The procedure can take months between discovery and trial, or those processes may take just a few weeks. Typically, the lead-up to impeachment – i.e. the impeachment inquiry – is what takes the longest amount of time.

Trump's first impeachment took much longer than his second, for example.

No. It is a common misconception that impeachment and removal are the same thing, but impeachment is only a potential precursor to removal.

No US President has ever been removed from office after an impeachment.

Not automatically. Impeachment, conviction, and removal from office are all considered to be political processes, not criminal.

However, a President, once removed from office, can be tried in criminal court.