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There is nothing better than a big fight, brother. The feel of two gladiators squaring off in the ring with a title on the line is pure electricity. This Saturday down in Miami, Canelo Alvarez will defend both his WBA and WBC belts against Avni Yildirim. Let’s see those boxing odds.
If a line moves from -3 to -3.5, it means that the public’s money is filtering on the favorite. Reverse line movement is the opposite of fading the public, as you attempt to submit a wager at -3 at a different sportsbook before it makes a similar adjustment. Free Betting Odds and line movements in realtime at Sportsbookreview.com. Check out SBR's live odds for all major sports. Including BetOnline and Bovada. Make sure you stick with the.
Avni Yildirim vs. Canelo Alvarez
Saturday, February 27, 2021 – 07:00 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium
I love a good boxing match. When there’s a big fight on the calendar, it’s like the Kentucky Derby or the Super Bowl for me. You wake up excited. You plan your whole day around it. You get together with friends and watch in a group. It’s a great thing and we get it too few times a year. This fight is kind of one of those moments.
Who Is Avni Yildirim?
Don’t feel bad if you don’t know the answer, because I had to look it up before I dug into this fight. Part of the reason for that is that Yildirim has not fought in two years. I understand we have had the pandemic, but that is still a wildly long period of inactivity. Then factoring on top of that, he is going from two years of inactivity to stepping into the ring with one of the most dangerous and accomplished fighters in the world, and let’s just say it doesn’t inspire a ton of optimism on the young man’s behalf.
It is not just the inactivity of Yildirim that has causes skepticism, but his actual record, while only shows two defeats, is not inspiring. He is off a somewhat controversial loss to Anthony Dirrell, but was also KO’d by Chris Eubank and struggled mightily with the likes of Ryan Ford and Lolenga Mock. That simply does not bode well for someone stepping into the ring with someone the likes of Canelo.
Canelo Alvarez Begins His Barnstorming 2021 Tour
Canelo Alvarez defeated Callum Smith by unanimous decision in December at the Alamodome to win both the WBA and WBC Super Middleweight championships. Alvarez has a very busy 2021 planned. After just fighting in December, he’s back in the ring already in February and has three more fights planned for the calendar year. The fight with Yildirim is only happening because he is a mandatory challenger and Alvarez has not sought to get a waiver from the fight.
Canelo has better, more challenging opponents ahead of him, but at this point in his career, he is a seasoned professional. I don’t think he will overlook Yildirim to the point of being subject to an upset. This is a spot that Canelo knows can set up the remainder of his 2021 schedule.
Betting Analysis
Bottom line here is it would take a Rocky Balboa-esque effort for Avni Yildirim to win this fight and I simply cannot see Canelo Alvarez allowing that to happen in his first title defense of 2021. You can’t lay the crazy juice that it will cost to take Canelo Alvarez straight up. This means it’s time to get creative. I’m going to say that as hard as Avni Yildirim may fight, as much as he may want this, he will not be able to go the distance against Canelo. For my best bets, my prediction is that this fight gets stopped on the way and Canelo walks out with both championship belts as he continues his 2021 tour.
Boxing Pick: Canelo Alvarez by KO/TKO at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.
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Sports handicapping lingo can be nifty. We’re even allowed to act as though “London” and “Las Vegas” are conscious beings, luring unwise bettors like sailors to a siren shore.
For instance, I might post, “What does Las Vegas think about Tottenham Hotspur?” Obviously, Las Vegas is a city – it can’t “think” anything.
Sin City’s collective of handicappers, high-rollers, and pundits sure do have a say in things.
I’ve lampooned long, drawn-out events such as the UEFA Champions League for calling itself a “league” when it’s really just a round-robin tournament that takes forever. But to grumble about that would be to miss out on the beauty of the Beautiful Game.
At least soccer superstars aren’t tied down to a single competition. The idea that Ronaldo plays in multiple “leagues” at once may be strange to some American fans but is actually the ideal scenario for a great athlete and his supporters. European football is often about redemption, of 2nd chances at glory.
When Mohamed Salah walked off the pitch to greet his daughter after Reds claimed a final, futile Premier League victory of 2018-19, it felt like an ending, a heartwarming finish to a thrilling and exciting season of soccer at Anfield.
London and Las Vegas – ahem – the speculators in London and Las Vegas (and at sports betting sites on the World Wide Web) would beg to differ.
Football odds work in such a way that the bettor can find herself cheering for a club in the 1st half and then against the same side in the 2nd half. But as the June 1st UEFA final at Wanda Metropolitano draws closer, Liverpool supporters and gamblers appear to be 100% on the same wavelength.
Punters appear confident that Liverpool’s spring is just beginning.
Liverpool vs Tottenham: Reds a Popular ML Pick
The “Game Lines” for the Liverpool vs Tottenham final at Bovada Sportsbook are tilting ever-so surely toward Reds and against Spurs since opening at a (Even) moneyline on Salah and supporting cast. Liverpool is now a (-105) wager to win without penalties, while Tottenham’s payoff line has grown fatter at (+305).
Other sportsbooks are leaning even further toward Jürgen Klopp’s club. In the blog’s in-depth analysis of the Liverpool vs Tottenham final, we looked briefly at GTBets.eu and its opening numbers on the Champions League gala. With time for the betting handle to grow, the site is now giving Reds (-111) to win while Tottenham’s ML has swelled to a (+320) payoff.
That’s a line to consider, especially when you consider Klopp’s history in final matches. I already liked Tottenham at (+290), though we know more about the injury situations now. (+320) is a bargain wager on a spirited football club in any case.
Glancing back at Bovada Sportsbook, it’s amusing how the Over/Under total for the final has developed over the last several days.
Typically, sites in our purview such as BetOnline or Sportsbetting.ag are rife with Asian Handicaps, which allow a bookmaker to set a total between a whole number and a halved fraction like (3) and (2 ½), giving partial payouts to certain gamblers if they wind-up close but without a cigar…kind of like those “stock market” betting options I’m always writing about.
Bovada Sportsbook typically posts less Asian Handicaps of goal spreads and O/U lines than most of its competitors.
When Bovada opened with a line of (2 ½) on the O/U for Reds vs Spurs in Madrid, I knew that the total was too low, and counseled Legit Gambling Sites readers to take the Over. Am I saying I had something to do with the current line-movement? No. Maybe, though, a lot of bloggers thought the same thing I did all at once. In any case, action on the Over appears to have swelled.
How did Bovada react? Why, with a current Asian Handicap of (2 ½, 3) total goals between Liverpool and Tottenham, of course. A very, very tempting (+115) payoff line is attached to the market.
Will Harry Kane Play in the Champions League Final?
It’s clear that the betting public is extremely skeptical of Harry Kane’s chances to play in the Champions League final in Spain, even though his manager is “optimistic” and the wunderkind was photographed jogging with teammates very recently.
? @JanVertonghen, @HKane and @daosanchez26 all joined today's training session as they progress with their rehabilitation. #THFC ⚪️ #COYSpic.twitter.com/sSZ3dEClRR
— Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) May 22, 2019
Is it all a ruse? Spurs’ moneyline would be shrinking if Las Vegas didn’t think so (there we go again!) but even a Harry Kane at 75% could make a big difference on the pitch. Even as a decoy.
College Basketball Lines Bovada
It’s not like the Reds aren’t having injury problems of their own. Prior to the miracle comeback against Barcelona, the 2nd leg of the Champions League semifinal resembled a demolition derby. Andrew Robertson was among those helped to the dressing room by medics. With the final in Spain only about a week away, the team has already announced that Guinean midfielder Naby Keita will miss the match, though things do seem a bit brighter for key attacker Firmino.
I don’t see any massive headlines or narratives that should be affecting line movement. Perhaps there’s just a natural tendency to lean to the favorite in such a gigantic event as a UEFA club final. Salah is a superstar whom we already know is healthy.
But is there a weird chain-reaction of under-valued clubs and outcomes that is taking place?
Spurs Didn’t Beat Sisters of the Poor in Amsterdam
Liverpool’s comeback win in the semifinal was over a marquee opponent and an icon, Lionel Messi.
Tottenham’s comeback win in its own semifinal was over a crazy upstart from the Dutch league.
Both victories were equally impressive. To my eyes, anyway.
Ajax, after all, was a UEFA semifinal bid which had squashed Ronaldo and Juventus in a fabulous elimination-match upset just 2 weeks prior to meeting Spurs in the 1st leg. Sons of the Gods stormed into Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on April 30th and took a 1-0 aggregate lead, led by tons of fresh talent from Africa and Dutch academy programs.
It was up to a side which had seen its Premiership hopes dashed when Kane fell in early spring to somehow find resolve to come back on hostile turf.
But even the loss of Manchester City from the ranks wasn’t going to prevent an all-English final this time around.
Liverpool’s incredible rally at Anfield will be legend and lore forever…but Spurs’ 2nd half in Amsterdam wasn’t any less noble or fantastic just because less supporters on-hand were cheering.
Ajax is seen as a lesser commodity than Barcelona. Tottenham got an easy draw – had a lesser mountain to climb – take your pick.
Gamblers are giving a single 90+ minute match in Spain the same treatment as they might have given, say, Tottenham and Liverpool’s futures lines to win the competition back in April. This is a championship fixture that will occur on June 1st. When Spurs were still in the hunt for a 2018-19 Premiership title – and suffered injuries even then – would Liverpool have been a (-111) wager to beat Tottenham at a neutral site? Or more like a (+125) or (+140) wager?
Updated Best-Wager Recommendations for Liverpool vs Tottenham
This fish might be called Wanda, but the odds smell a little fishy.
Whether Harry Kane glories, sags, limps, labors or sits in the stands on June 1st, Tottenham has more than enough skill and veteran presence to knock-off Liverpool once in 3 tries in this event. The (+320) line at GTBets.eu is sorely mispriced. I think that Spurs will be in the thick of it at the end in Madrid…win, lose, or draw.
Why do I tout underdog futures and moneylines so often? It’s kind of like when Stanley Kubrick said that the Pentagon’s real problem was never having hired a master novelist. No mortal can imagine the randomness of reality and the future until it occurs.
The universe, truly, is indifferent to our attempts to put Liverpool in the winner’s seat before the Reds have won the match.
I still like the Over market at Bovada Sportsbook for the showdown in Spain, but consider Tottenham’s (+ ½) at the sportsbook as well. Like the Over, it removes the house vig from the equation, this time with an (Even) payoff. There’s a better than 50% chance Spurs will be drawn or leading as the clock ticks down…though Liverpool will and should remain favored to lift the trophy.