If you’re reading this blog you probably don’t need to be told that poker, both cash games and tournaments, can be a brutal and mentally crippling way to spend your time. After all, did everything right. You 3bet the aggressive player to your right a couple of times with appropriate holdings and then they open again (like they always seems to) and you pick up pocket kings.

Oh, happy day. This is it, you can feel it. The time to double up super deep in this huge Sunday tournament.

So you 3bet just like you had done before, everyone else at the table folds prompting the loose opener to immediately go all in. You snap call. This is it, the spot you’ve been waiting for with just 12 players left. They have a8o, you’ve done everything right.

The board runs out K2453…

Variance is the downswings and upswings involved with playing poker. It’s quite possibly the least technical definition for a term I have ever written, but the “ups and downs” of poker when it comes to winning and losing money sums it up rather well. Variance is a term commonly thrown around in poker. While poker is luck based in the short term it is nearly all skill in the long run. The correct play will frequently have a worse result than the incorrect play; good players will frequently lose to bad players. Live poker has variance just like any other form of poker. The thing about live poker variance is that it’s much slower and prolonged than what you’ll normally encounter in online play. With online poker, a player can swing up or down 5-10 buy ins in a single day. These types of swings are very uncommon in live poker due to the much slower.

Insert crying/disbelief/sobbing/fury gif.

Time to smash the laptop right? Or instead, immediately go to WhatsApp or Skype/Discord to rage moan to your poker buddies about it? That’s surely the kind of thing we should do in these situations? Well no, maybe not.

Dealing with Short Term Pain

After a bad beat like that, even if you’re happily married or usually a content soul, life is going to suck for at least the next 10 minutes. And the important thing to remember about this fact is that it’s entirely normal to feel this way. That river card is supposed to hurt, a lot. Some may deal with it better than others but the fact is you’re supposed to be angry.

So be angry/tilted/ready to do a roundhouse kick on your monitor. The key is to own that feeling of disappointment and use it in the future.

In poker, there always be downs, some of them so bad you barely recover but much like life you have to take the bad with the good. As however awful you feel minutes after that bad beat, you need to remember how good you feel when you win a massively important/lucrative hand. This is crucial as you need to keep a balanced mindset and not lose your bankroll over a bad beat, however painful it is!

Variance and Trying to Understand it in the Long Term

The first thing to say here is if you aren’t familiar with the term variance, it relates to the mathematical and probability based idea that you could play a hand the exact same way 100 times but get different results.

For instance, sometimes when someone has 9% on the turn to win versus you, there’s a 9% chance they will win! Even if you think they don’t deserve to!

This is basically (very basically) what variance is, sometimes you will get AKss in versus QQ for the chip lead on a final table and win and other times you won’t. That’s it.

Poker Variance Calculator Alex Torres

Some players try to reduce variance by not taking risks, though this is doable to a certain extent, in MTTs especially there is always a high amount of variance due to the shorter stacks and players being forced to clash after going all in etc.

Poker

It’s better to just embrace and more importantly understand the madness of variance than trying to avoid it. In reality, if you aren’t ready to deal with the variance of playing poker over a long stretch of time, then it just isn’t the game for you. Also just to note, variance is the root cause of all bad beat stories around the world, so let’s face it, it has a lot to answer for!

Poker Tournament Variance

Some players try to reduce variance by not taking risks, though this is doable to a certain extent, in MTTs especially there is always a high amount of variance due to the shorter stacks and players being forced to clash after going all in etc. It’s better to just embrace and more importantly understand the madness of variance than trying to avoid it. In reality, if you aren’t ready to deal with the variance of playing poker over a long stretch of time, then it just isn’t the game for you. Also just to note, variance is the root cause of all bad beat stories around the world, so let’s face it, it has a lot to answer for!

Here is a video on the topic in which you can go through some practical examples on how to remain focus after bad beats in poker

Poker Variance

Poker Variance

Poker variance calculation

As Long as you Play Well…

Have you played a hand terribly recently? Have you ‘punted off’ your stack in a big tournament? Have you gone against everything you tell yourself not to do at the poker table? If so, how did it feel? Take a moment to remember. It felt horrible right?

Much more so than getting two outed in a huge pot on the river. This was a different feeling of pain altogether, so much so that there’s a defined self-loathing apparent when you play a poker hand badly that goes far beyond simply getting unlucky.

When you make a major mishap in a hand you feel like, for a moment at least, like playing ever again would be a bad idea. That’s the reality of it for many players and so it’s feeling that most players try to avoid as much as possible.

These are the moments you can avoid. You can avoid playing a hand badly by doing daily poker strategy with your poker buddies, signing up to a training course, or simply being in the right shape of mind to play that day. You cannot though avoid the fact that if you get in AA preflop versus JTcc that there’s a 21.5% chance that you lose. If you lose, the feeling is not good but if think about poker the right way then it feels a whole better than playing a hand in a subpar fashion in a situation where you could have made a huge amount of money. If you struggle with bad beats, just remember all you can do is play to the best of your ability, the rest is down to variance or if you’re the old fashioned type, the poker gods!

A Few Tips to Deal with the Stressful Nature of Playing Poker Regularly

You get lucky too! – Poker players have a very selective memory when it comes to being lucky and unlucky! Make a note of the times you got super lucky (you’ll need a big notebook) to give yourself perspective when a downswing comes around.

Accept your fate – Every time you sit down at a poker table or to an online session accept that you are in for some pain! Even in a live session, it’s very rare you won’t get unlucky or frustrated at some point. It’s part of the game if you truly accept that, life as a poker player will be much easier.

Laugh it off – Sometimes there’s nothing else to do but sit there and laugh ironically at the ridiculously bad luck you’ve been having for the last 5 hours. Keep laughing and enjoying the game, even in the dark times. As if you don’t, wants the point of even anteing up?

Last but not least- here is one additional and thorough resource on how to overcome bad beats in poker by Alec Torelli.

Poker Variance

Poker

When it comes to anything that involves chance, there are swings in fortune you can’t legislate for. Naturally, the smaller the percentage of luck, the less likely you will see pendulum like swings in fortune. But, even in sports like football, chance can have a big say. Whilst poker is largely a game of skill, there is an element of luck that cannot be ignored. This is particularly true when focusing on the short term. On any given day, a weaker player can catch great cards or bad beat or cooler their stronger opponents. In this article, we will seek to explain what poker variance is, how it affects players and how to deal with it.

Beginner Texas Hold’em Question

What is Variance in Poker?

Variance is the difference between what you expect to occur and what actually happens. These can be summarised as swings or ups and downs involved in poker. Poker hand analysis software can highlight the variance easily with graphs.

What Influences Poker Variance?

Variance impacts everyone. Like the rain, it falls on everyone and does not discriminate. However, there are factors that can play a part in variance.

Style of Play

Poker Variance Calculation

Playing a LAG poker style is likely to incur more swings and greater variance than playing a tighter game. This is because of the inherent risk of playing more hands and less than premium hands.

Tournament Type

The more entrants, the greater luck involved. This is especially true when blind increments are quicker too. Think about it, SNGs with 9 people are far less swingy than playing the Sunday Million with thousands of entrants.

Format

An obvious one here but worth making the point. No limit is more volatile and swingier than limit games. With the option to bet larger in relation to stack sizes, variance goes up.

The Negative Impacts of Variance in Poker

Poker Variance Meaning

Variance takes it’s toll on lots of players. From micro to mid stakes, many can’t handle it and negatively impacts them:

Tilt

Many players suffer bad luck then proceed to go on tilt and lose even more, thus making it worse. This is a big problem for players at low stakes. They have the potential to be great players but tilt off buy-ins at the first sign of bad luck.

Moving Between Stakes

There’s a lot of players that have no clue on bankroll management. They continuously move between stakes due to variance and take hits to their confidence. If you exercise a cautious approach and have plenty of buy-ins, you should be able to handle variance. I suggest setting up a poker spreadsheet to keep on top of you results and monitor performance.

Changing Your Game

Some people go the other way when variance hits. They question their game and strategy. Instead of tilting, they go into a shell, bluff less, value bet wrong and play too nitty. This is just as bad as tilting as it has longer lasting consequences. You may lose less from playing conservatively but remember, money you fail to pick up through accurate value betting and bluffing is the same as money lost.

How to Overcome Poker Variance

People deal with negativity in different ways. I always say it’s best to think of the long term. If you are doing this and not focusing on the most recent session, you will be better for it. Professionals accept that not every session will be a winning one. This is the burden that pro’s bear for playing a game with chance involved. If you can’t handle it, forget about playing professionally.
Overcoming variance can be achieved by playing a happy song after a tough session to help your mood. Or, saying to yourself you will get the same fortune. My suggestion to think of the long run is ideal for consistent winners.

Variance isn’t All Bad

We’ve focused on the negative aspect until now, but remember, variance isn’t just the bad swings. Simple probability maths dictate you should receive your positive swings too. This means you will run good and win more than you ought to aswell. This is a comforting thought, particularly if you’re on a downswing or usually win. As stated earlier, poker variance doesn’t have favourites per se. The sun shines on all, just as the run falls on all.
It’s important to recognise when variance has been on your side. If your software is showing that you actually should be losing or breaking even, you need to work on your game. Good players cannot be results orientated in the short-term and variance can’t always bail you out. That’s why continuing to work at your game is important. I recommend regular hand history reviews to our students, so they can have impartial feedback on how they are playing.

Final Thoughts

Poker Variance Texas Holdem

Remember, poker variance is what keeps the weak players coming back. Occasionally, they win and that hope of winning again is what keeps them in the game. This is an incredibly important point and worth remembering if you moan about the luck in poker. You don’t want to only play against strong players, do you? Winning money is your goal and to do that, you need to take it from inferior players. They won’t want to play if they never win and the game was 100% skill based.