It’s been a while since I wrote a blog post! In fact it’s been nearly a year. Oops. But I’m back and I’m ready to apply the lessons I learned from my TI8 predictions to do an even better job this time! A few things to note:

Based on current and past TI9 betting odds and results, we predict the following outcomes: Region to likely be Champion at TI 2019: Europe. Teams to likely reach Grand Final: Virtus.Pro, Liquid, Vici Gaming. Top team in Region: Team Secret (EU), Vici Gaming (CN), Virtus.Pro (CIS), Fnatic (SEA) Region of.

Number of heroes in the table with at least one pick: Tournament heroes banned: 97: View in Explorer: Number of heroes in the table with at least one ban: Tournament most kills in a game: 101: View in Explorer: See the SUM column: Tournament longest game: 76:08: View in Explorer: Tournament shortest game: 15:35: View in Explorer: Tournament. View full stats, matches and teams for The International 2019. The International 2019 is on its way and that means one thing - the clock is ticking to make your TI9 Battle Pass predictions. Everyone's at it - including some of the most high-profile names in the community, including AdmiralBulldog, Tobiwan, Spectre and even Gosu.ai. Vici Gaming are the experts' choice to win TI9, with Miracle- named as the favourite to be the player with the highest kill average. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us.

1. According to this compilation, I was the best prognosticator last year. So that’s cool =). Please note however, that almost all the correct answers come from the tournament predictions section and the rest are really pretty random.

2. I considered whatever precedents made the most sense for each prediction. So for some you’ll see data from the whole season, sometimes I’ll only use the most recent tournaments. (Special note: for the 5 game minimum hero selections I used 10 games for TI qualifiers because there are so many more games.

3. I did not consider players or teams we have almost no recent information on. For example, I’m almost surely not going to make predictions for Jabz or vtFaded as carry since we have very limited data on their new roles.

4. The Summit, while informative, is not what I would consider representative of the whole Dota meta considering only one TI team was there.

With that said, if you just want to see my predictions click here. If you want to look at the research and reasoning and make your own informed decision keep reading!

Hero predictions

Most picked

Prior results:

  • 2018 – VS
  • 2017 – Earthshaker
  • 2016 – Mirana
  • Top Picks at Epicenter (most picked first): Grimstroke, Centaur, Ember, Warlock
  • Top Picks in TI qualifiers: Ember, Centaur, WK, Grimstroke
  • Top Picks at Summit: Grimstroke, Juggernaut, Dark Willow

TI8 pick: Winter Wyvern

Alternatives: Phoenix, WR, Warlock

Wyvern was top 10 so I guess not a total loss, but VS is such a flexible support and that’s the kind of hero we need to pick.

TI9 pick: Grimstroke

Alternatives: Rubick, CM, Dark Willow, AA, Sand King

Centaur has been nerfed enough I think. Same with Ember. So I’m leaning towards Grimstroke I guess. The problem is not picking an OP hero since they will end up being banned and picking a stable hero.

Most banned

Prior results:

  • 2018 – Enchantress
  • 2017 – Night Stalker,
  • 2016 – Io
  • Top Bans at Epicenter (most banned first): Sven, Chen, DS, Bat
  • Top Bans in TI qualifiers: Ember, Omni, OD, IO, Chen
  • Top Bans at Summit: Enigma, SB, Omni, Chen

TI8 pick: IO

Alternatives: Phoenix, PL, Chen

Okay so Enchantress was an obvious pick after The Summit, but then was hit with a nerf. I way overestimated that nerf’s effect. Oops. Of course IO was the 2nd most banned hero so I guess I didn’t miss by much.

TI9 pick: Chen

Alternatives: Omni, Enigma, IO

Chen’s ability to manipulate lanes is a unique skill that teams hate to face. Also better teams (i.e. teams at Epicenter and TI) are more likely to be able to take advantage of that ability. Omniknight and Enigma are heroes that we just don’t want to deal with. Chen was nerfed recently, but it doesn’t change his ability to alter the early game.

Hero with highest win rate (5 game minimum)

Prior results:

  • 2018 – Venomancer
  • 2017 – Ogre (wtf?)
  • 2016 – Undying/Lone Druid
  • Epicenter: Axe, WD, Slark
  • TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): Dark Willow, Beastmaster, Bane ()
  • Summit: Clinkz (6-0), Enigma (7-1), Storm (11-2)
  • 7.19-7.22 Majors: Arc Warden, Nyx, Io (over 10 games played)

TI8 picks: Chen

Alternatives: Brood, IO, Huskar.

I mean this has to be like the least predictable category. Brood did end up 4th behind Veno, Drow and Invoker and tied with Arc Warden.

TI9 pick: Arc warden

Alternatives: Brood, Enigma

Who knows? I went with Arc Warden because it feels like a hero that will barely meet the 5 game minimum and therefore has a good chance to hit that high win-rate.

Hero with the highest kill average (5 game minimum)

Prior results:

  • 2018 – Timbersaw
  • 2017 – PA
  • 2016 – PA
  • Epicenter: QOP, Alch, CK (Arc Warden beat them all but only 4 games)
  • TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): WR, Sniper, Gyro
  • Summit: Morph, Storm, OD
  • 7.19-7.22 Majors: Morph, Ursa, Arc Warden (over 10 games played)

TI8 pick: Storm

Alternatives: PA, SF, Slark

None of my choices were in the top 10 qualifying heroes so there goes that. Not sure what the lesson here is, but Gyro was the only one from the tournaments that got close.

TI9 pick: OD

Alternatives: Arc Warden, QoP, Gyro

I think OD is up and coming and while OD is a better farming hero than he used to be, he’s still got lots of kill potential. I think Morph has just been nerfed too much.

Hero with highest assist average (5 game minimum)

Prior results:

  • 2018 – Tusk
  • 2017 – BH
  • 2016 – AA
  • Epicenter: Nyx, Tusk, Oracle, ET,
  • TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): Disrupter, AA, Earthshaker
  • Summit: Earth Spirit, Spirit Breaker, Mars
  • 7.19-7.22 Majors: Spirit Breaker, AA, IO (over 10 games played)

TI8 pick: Tusk

Alternatives: BH, IO

Got this one. The top 5 were all supports (Tusk, Nyx, VS, Phoenix, Earth Spirit). Also you’ll note that most of them have some sort of AOE to get assists. Might be worth keeping in mind.

TI9 pick: Spirit Breaker

Alternatives: IO, AA, Nyx

Do you think Zeus and or Spectre will be picked enough? If they are, they are good candidates. I don’t think they will be so I’m going to go with Spirit Breaker. The downside of Spirit Breaker is that he will likely get played a lot.

Hero with lowest death average (5 game minimum)

Prior results:

  • 2018 – Medusa
  • 2017 – Morph
  • 2016 – Lone Druid
  • Epicenter: Lone Druid, Gyro, WR
  • TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): AM, Jugg, DK
  • Summit: Clinkz, Sven, Slark
  • 7.19-7.22 Majors: AM, Lycan, Lone Druid (over 10 games played)

TI8 pick: Morphling

Alternatives: Brood, Medusa, Lycan (also 4th at Supermajor)

Morphling averaged 4.3 deaths/game which was shockingly high for that hero imo. Brood, Lycan and Medusa were the top 3 so I was pretty close.

TI9 pick: AM

Alternatives: Naga, Clinkz

I’m going AM. Again I expect to see a fair bit of AM this tournament and I’m just not as convinced by the other heroes. I think Clinkz is a decent option, but TI teams are better at dealing with heroes like Clinkz than the ones at the summit. Naga of course is another split pusher with an escape so she’s a solid option as well.

Hero with highest last hit average (5 game minimum)

Past Results

  • 2018 – SF
  • 2017 – AM
  • 2016 – AM
  • Epicenter: Alch, Medusa, Naga (Arc Warden, AM only had 4,3 games but were higher)
  • TI qualifiers: Naga, AM, Medusa (over 10 picks due to # of qualifier games)
  • Summit: Gyro, Jugg, Sven
  • 7.19-7.22 Majors: AM, Terrorblade, Arc Warden (over 10 games played)

TI8 pick: Medusa

Alternatives: AM, Medusa, PL (probably picked too many times to win an average category, but he’s up there), Also my dark horse is Sven!

Well SF got it as the hero who only played 6 games. More traditional heroes like Terrorblade and Medusa were 2 and 3 and AM was only played in one game.

TI9 pick: AM

Alternatives: Arc Warden, Sven, Naga

If you think AM gets picked 5 times you have to pick him or maybe Arc Warden. I think he will get picked so I’m taking him here. Sven is another hard farmer, but I think he’s been nerfed enough.

Hero with highest XPM (5 game minimum)

Past Results

  • 2018 – Timbersaw
  • 2017 – Brood
  • 2016 – AM
  • Epicenter: TA, Sven, Medusa (AM, Brood, Meepo and Arc warden all high but <5 games)
  • TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): AM, Sven, TA
  • Summit: Slark, Sven, Morph
  • 7.19-7.22 Majors: AM, Medusa, TA (over 10 games played)

TI8 pick: Medusa

Alternatives: Meepo, AM, Brood

Meepo was #1 but not enough games played. AM was 3rd with only 1 game and Medusa and Brood were 4th and 5th. So clearly we’re in the right neighborhood.

TI9 pick: AM

Alternatives: TA, Meepo

I gotta go with AM. I think we have 5 AM games and we won’t get 5 Meepo games. Meanwhile TA has been nerfed repeatedly.

Hero with most kills in a game

Past Results

  • 2018 – Tiny
  • 2017 – QOP
  • 2016 – Invoker/Mirana
  • Epicenter top 10 individual kill games: Morph 2, Sven 2, Ursa, QoP, Ember, AM Jugg, Naix
  • 7.19-7.22 Majors top 20 individual kill games: Morph 4, PA 2, Jugg 2, Meepo 2, Mirana, Terrorblade, Storm, Timber, Ursa, Gyro, QoP, Axe, Naix, MK

TI8 picks: Storm

Alternatives: Ember, Mirana

Mirana was in the top 5, but Ember and Storm really underwhelmed.

TI9 picks: QOP

Alternatives: Morph, Jugg

Morph has been the carry of the DPC season imo, but I think the nerfs have hit the hero enough. I’m actually leaning towards QoP right now and I have no idea why, but this is a shot in the dark. Jugg is not necessarily a kill machine, but again he’s going to get a fair number of games.

Hero with most last hits in a game

Past Results

  • 2018 – Tinker
  • 2017 – AM
  • 2016 – AM
  • Epicenter top 10 individual CS games: Lesh, Jugg, Arc Warden, WK, Naix, TA, Ember, Jug, Gyro, Naga
  • 7.19-7.22 Majors top 20 individual CS games: Terrorblade 5, AM 2, Jugg 2, Lesh, Medusa, Lone Druid, Arc Warden, WK, Naix, Storm, Spectre, TA, Meepo, Ember

TI8 pick: Medusa

Alternatives: AM, Ember, TA

Medusa and AM didn’t get played enough to really have a shot at the top possibilities. Tinker was barely played, but all it takes is one game.

TI9 pick: AM

Alternatives: Jugg, Medusa, Ember

Look I just don’t trust Terrorblade to get played very much at TI9. So even though he’s got 3 out of the top 4 this year I don’t buy him as a good option. AM is the easy pick, but if you want more games, Jugg is a strong option as well.

Team Predictions

Winner of TI

TI8 pick: Liquid

Alternatives: VP, LGD

My 3 picks finished 4th, 5th and 2nd. Not that they were particularly creative picks. OG won and if you picked OG you’re either a witch, brilliant, or lucky. TI favorites don’t always win, but they almost always finish in the top 8 so go with one of them I guess.

TI9 pick: VG

Alternatives: Secret, VP, Liquid, LGD

Did I just list 5 of the top 6 teams and say pick one of them? I did. Inspired analysis though right? Here’s why I picked VG. While they were not the most consistent team this season, I believe their peaks were higher than even Secret’s this year.

Team with most kills in a game

Ti9 Pick Rate

Prior Results

  • 2018: Liquid/VP
  • 2017: VP
  • 2016: EG
  • 7.19-7.22 Top 25 single game kill scores at DPC event: VP 4, Secret 3, Liquid 3, TNC 2, EG 2, Mineski, Beastcoast, OG, Alliance, Complexity, Forward, Gambit, Chaos, RNG, VG, LGD 1
  • Epicenter top single kill games: Secret, RNG, VP
  • Average kills/game in majors since 7.19: LGD, VG, EG

TI8 pick: VP

Alternatives: VG, LGD, Winstrike

Well I got this one right. Sweet. They did tie with Liquid though so more people got this right.

TI9 pick: VP

Alternatives: VG, LGD, TNC

I’m going with VP again because their games have tended to be longer on average. Same goes for TNC. Vici Gaming has the highest average kills/game, but they also tend to have shorter games and may not have the same long crazy game upside. TNC is the darkhorse, but I trust VP to play more games than TNC.

Team with highest kill average

Prior Results

  • 2018: EG
  • 2017: LGD.FY
  • 2016: OG
  • Epicenter: TNC, LGD, VP
  • Average kills/game in majors since 7.19: LGD, VG, EG

TI8 pick: VP

Alternatives: LGD, Winstrike

LGD was number 2. Exactly .75 kills/game below EG. Vp was 4th. Not a terrible result, especially since the new EG Was so hard to predict last year

TI9 pick:TNC

Alternatives: VP, VG, LGD

Usually I pick what I think to be the safe choice, but I’m going with TNC here. They love long games. They don’t give up. And they had the highest average at Epicenter, so I at least have some evidence to back it up. The downside is that TNC has a lower floor than VP, VG, LGD and if you lose more games you’re likely to have fewer kills.

Team with fewest deaths in a game

Prior Results

  • 2018: Fnatic
  • 2017: Newbee
  • 2016: Escape gaming
  • 7.19-7.22 top 25 single game death scores at a major: VG 4, LGD 4, EG 3, NIP 2, Alliance 2, Liquid, Gambit, Ehome, VP, Forward, Mineski, Navi, The Pango, Chaos, Fnatic
  • Epicenter top 10 single game death scores: VG 2, VP, Forward, LGD, NIP, Gambit, Fnatic, TNC, Secret
  • 7.19-7.22 Fewest average deaths at majors: VG, Secret, LGD

TI8 pick: Secret

Alternatives: VP, Liquid, Mineski

Fnatic had a 1 death game. Secret had a 2 death game. Show me who thought this was going to be Fnatic =(.

TI9 pick: VG

Alternatives: LGD, Liquid

This one to me seems obvious. You want a team that’s going to win a lot of games and is going to win them quickly. Vici Gaming does both of those things and was the only team to average under 20 deaths/game this season. Easy pick. Liquid with w33 is arguably a wildcard here but they were only 5th fewest deaths/game at epicenter. (My cohost Adam Lorton is shocked that I didn’t include Secret here with some sort of pocket strat. What a homer…)

Team with the most Assists in a game

Prior results

  • 2018: LGD
  • 2017: TNC
  • 2016: EG
  • 7.19-7.22 top 25 single game assist scores at majors: VP 3, VG 3, Secret 2, EG 2, Liquid 2, TNC 2, Fnatic 2, Alliance, Mineski, OG, J.Storm, NIP, Pain, Complexity, Gambit, Chaos
  • 7.19-7.22 Average assists at Majors: TNC, VG, LGD
  • Epicenter top 10 games: TNC 2, Alliance, Secret, OG, VP, Gambit, Forward, RNG, LGD
  • Epicenter top averages: TNC, VP, VG

TI8 pick: VG

Alternatives: Winstrike, Secret

Well, I didn’t even get close on this one. None of my 3 picks showed up in the top 10 games. Guess this one is noisy, but I was way off.

TI9 pick: TNC

Alternatives: VG, VP

The TNC pick is based on them only going to 3 majors this year and still have 2 of the top 25 highest single assist games with half the games compared to VP and VG. Even though they might have slightly fewer games than VG or VP at TI9, the group stage format somewhat equalizes games played.

Team that wins the Longest Game

Prior results

  • 2018: Mineski
  • 2017: IG.V
  • 2016: Escape
  • 7.19-7.22 top 25 longest wins at majors: VP 5, Liquid 3, RNG 2, EG 2, Fnatic 2, TNC 2, Jstorm, Secret, Chaos, alliance, LGD, NIP, Col, Beast, Mineski
  • 7.19-7.22 Longest average win length at majors: RNG, TNC, VP
  • Epicenter longest average win length: RNG, Secret, TNC
  • Epicenter longest 10 wins: VP 3, TNC 2, RNG 2, Alliance, Secret, Liquid

TI8 pick: VG

Alternatives: Newbee, Fnatic, Secret

Newbee won the second longest game at TI8 and they did it against Secret. Fnatic lost the longest game. So 3 out of my 4 picks appeared in the longest 2 games. So I’ll call this one okay. Long games are a crapshoot as to who wins so you want whoever is going to play in them.

TI9 pick: VP

Alternatives: TNC, RNG, Secret

VP play long games and they win long games. They also are likely to win more games than RNG for example. Again this is a category with a lot of noise so don’t invest too much into the nuances.

Team that wins the shortest game

Prior results

  • 2018: OG
  • 2017: EG
  • 2016: Navi
  • 7.19-7.22 top 25 shortest wins at majors: VG 5, Secret 3, TNC 2, Ehome 2, LGD 2, EG 2, Liquid 2, Chaos 2, Mineski, Alliance, OG, Fnatic, VP
  • 7.19-7.22 shortest average win length: Navi, Chaos, Keen, Infamous, Secret, VG
  • Epicenter average shortest win length: EG, LGD, VG
  • Epicenter shortest 10 wins: Liquid 2, LGD, TNC, VG, Gambit, EG, Fnatic, VP, NIP

TI8 pick: Liquid

Alternatives: VP

VP won the 5th shortest game and Liquid won the 6th so it wasn’t totally crazy, but this was pretty far off.

TI9 pick: VG

Alternatives: Liquid, Secret, LGD

You want a team that will win quickly and will win a lot. That seems like VG to me, but there are a lot of options for this one. Liquid especially is tempting. Especially since they were the only team to get 2 of the shortest wins at epicenter. But ultimately, VG has been doing this for too long and too consistently for me not to pick them.

Team with highest game length Average

Prior Results

  • 2018: TNC
  • 2017: Empire
  • 2016: Secret
  • 7.19-7.22 Longest game average at majors: TNC, RNG, NIP
  • Epicenter longest gave average: TNC, Secret, RNG

TI8 pick: VG

Alternatives: EG, Fnatic, Newbee

VG was a horrible choice here. They finished 15th in average game length out of 18 teams. Newbee and Fnatic were a lot closer (2nd and 3rd) but man VG was a real mistake.

TI9 pick: TNC

Alternatives, RNG, NIP, Secret

I feel really conflicted on this one. TNC’s average game length this year is only 3 seconds longer than RNGs. No teams at TI have really few games (16 game minimum) so I can’t pick the team that might just get 2-3 lucky long games. Ultimately, I basically flipped a coin between TNC and RNG.

Team with most different heroes picked

Prior Results

  • 2018: Secret
  • 2017: Newbee
  • 2016: Wings
  • Epicenter: Liquid 50 (21 games), VP 47(18), LGD 41 (16), NIP 40 (11)
  • MDL Disneyland: NIP 47 (16 games), Liquid 45 (21), LGD 43 (19), EG 39 (13)
  • Dreamleague: VP 55 (28 games), Fnatic 52 (18), Secret 40 (16), Mineski 36 (13)
  • Chongqing: Secret 51 (20 games), EG 38 (20), VP 38 (17), LGD 34 (13)
  • Kuala Lumpur: VP 40 (20 games), NIP 38 (16), EG 37 (20), TNC 36 (13)

TI8 pick: Optic

Alternatives: VG, VP

Well Optic finished 3rd with 52 unique heroes in 24 games compared to secret with 58 in 26 games. So could be worse.

TI9 pick: Secret

Alternatives: NIP, VP, LGD, Liquid

Hmmmm. If Optic hadn’t failed last year, I’d be sorely tempted to pick NIP. VP have been the most consistently at the top, but ultimately I’m going to go with Secret. I have a feeling that Puppey will be trying plenty of heroes during the group stage and saving some strats for the knockouts.

Team with fewest different heroes picked

Prior Results

  • 2018: TNC
  • 2017: Newbee
  • 2016: Wings
  • Epicenter: Infamous 22, Pain 23, EG 27
  • MDL Disneyland: Empire 19, Beastcoast 20, Fnatic 25
  • Dreamleague: Navi 22, Forward 25, Liquid 27
  • Chongqing: Aster 18, JStorm 22, Alliance 23
  • Kuala Lumpur: Gambit 22, Pain X 24, Aster 28

TI8 pick: Pain

Alternatives: IG, Mineski, OG

Ewww. Pain picked a good 9 more heroes than TNC did last year. Not even close on this one. I think the lesson is that with TI the weakest few teams still get a minimum of 16 games whereas at a major you might only get 5.

TI9 pick: Keen

Alternatives: Infamous, Alliance, Mineski, Chaos

Ti9 Picks

Since all the teams are playing 16 games I decided to run the data again and picked the team with the fewest heroes played when they played over 10 games at each major and got: Alliance, VG, Keen, VG, OG. I decided to go with Keen. VG is a legitimate option as well, but I still expect them to play a lot of bracket games so I’m leaning Keen. OG’s fewest at epicenter was when playing with their coach which I think eliminates them. Chaos is a dark horse that I have not enough info to rate.

Players Predictions

Player with the highest kill average

Prior results

  • 2018: Miracle
  • 2017: Kuku
  • 2016: Miracle
  • Epicenter: Ana, Somnus, Gabbi, Paparazi
  • 7.19-7.22 average kills in majors: Paparazi, Gabbi, Miracle, Ana, Somnus

TI8 pick: Somnus

Alternatives: Ramzes, Iceberg

Somnus was #3 in kills/game. Ramzes was #5. So not terrible, but it does seem foolish to not trust in Miracle.

TI9 pick: Paparazi

Alternatives: Miracle, Ana, Gabbi

Ana to me is the high upside, but also most downside of these players. Miracle is the legacy choice, but I think Paparazi is the choice from this year. Miracle not being in the top 4 for kills at Epicenter despite his team’s performance is what makes the call for me.

Player with most kills in a game

Prior results

  • 2018: Sumail
  • 2017: Kuku
  • 2016: w33/Sumail
  • Epicenter top 18 kill games: Ana 3, Miracle 2, Monet 2, Paparazi, Yawar, Afoninje, Midone, Kuku, Micke, Nisha, Armel, Gabbi, Fata, Ramzes
  • 7.19-7.22 top 20 individual kill games: Ramzes 3, Ace 2, Moo 2, Midone 2, Paparazi 2, RTZ, Afoninje, Ame, Shadow, Ahjit, Yawar, Ana, Miracle, Sumail

TI 8 pick: Somnus

Alternatives: Paparazi, Armel, Iceberg, Moon

Sumail had 31 kills in a game. The next highest was 24. He didn’t have another entry in the top 20. This is the perfect example of an outlier! Somnus tied for 3rd with 22 kills.

TI 9 pick: Ramzes

Alternatives: Paparazi, Miracle, Ana, Armel, Gabbi

Paparazi seems like an obvious choice, but I’m going to steer clear of him because I think VG won’t have the super long outlier game. Instead I’m thinking VP or TNC and I’m going to go with Ramzes. You should also see that unlike past years, safe-laners seem to be having more kills than mids this year. So I would definitely lean that way.

Player with the lowest death average

Prior results

  • 2018: Resolution
  • 2017: Ame
  • 2016:Qojqva
  • Epicenter: Daxak, Paparazi, Ori, Ramzes
  • 7.19-7.22 lowest average deaths at majors: Nisha, Ame, Paparazi, RTZ, Ramzes

TI8 pick: Raven

Alternatives: Ramzes, Reso

Raven finished 2nd and Reso was #1. I didn’t get it right, but I was damn close. This seems like a fairly stable and predictive category.

TI9 pick: Paparazi

Alternatives: Nisha, Ame

This has to be a hard carry. But between the top 4-5 it’s a bit of a crap shoot. I’m going with Paparazi because I think VG will do the best and have shorter games, but I don’t feel strongly about it versus the other options.

Player with the highest assist average

Prior results

  • 2018: Cr1t
  • 2017: Ah fu
  • 2016: Zai
  • Epicenter: Tims, Eyyou, Fade, Puppey, Solo, Dy
  • 7.19-7.22 average assists at majors: Eyyou, Fade, Tims, Dy, Kuku, fly, cr1t, fy

TI8 pick: Lanm

Alternatives: Nofear, AlwaysWannaFly, fy

This was bad. Really bad. Lanm wasn’t even in the top 25. Fy was 5th and that was the closest I got. Ultimately you know who did well? The supports from the top teams (Cr1t, GH, Solo, Fly, Fy, Puppey) were the top 6.

TI9 pick: Fade

Alternatives: Eyyou, Tims, Puppey, Solo

Okay so the choice is to go with TNC and their long games or VG and their consistent winning games. For average I’m going with Fade. I feel slightly more confident in VG than in TNC to do well and Fade/DY have been absolute monsters. Cr1t is who I might have gone with prior to doing research and I can’t fault you. The man has been a beast this year. He might have the most impactful assists, but this year he hasn’t been getting the most.

Player with most assists in a game

Prior results

  • 2018: Fy
  • 2017: Super
  • 2016: General
  • Epicenter top 20 individual assist games: This is a shitshow. Not a single player has more than one appearance on this list…
  • 7.19-7.22 top 20 individual kill games: Zai 2, Dy 2, Yapzor 2, Solo, Puppey, 9pasha, Nisha, Fly, Saksa, Cr1t, S4, Forev, 1437, Afterlife, Ceb, Ppd, Yang
Ti9 Picks

TI8: NoFear

Alternatives: Fenrir/Lanm,

Okay, so players from poorly performing teams did not show up on the most assists list. Instead its fy, Jerax, Solo, cr1t and fly were at the top last year. Lesson is pick a winning team.

TI9: Dy

Alternatives: Zai, Yapzor, Fade, FY

I don’t have a great answer for this one. But if we’re talking supports on teams I think will do well, we’re talking VG, Secret, Liquid, VP and LGD.

Player with highest last hit average

Prior Results

  • 2018: Sccc and Moon
  • 2017:Reso
  • 2016:IceIceIce
  • Epicenter: Nisha, Monet, Micke, Ramzes, Armel, Gabbi
  • 7.19-7.22 top average CS at majors: Gabbi, Ace, RTZ, Ramzes

TI8 picks: Resolution

Alternatives: Ramzes

Reso was #4 so not too bad. I think he got into trouble when VGJ Storm got off to such a good start. They won a lot of fast games using a 3 core lineup and not the Reso farm model.

TI9 picks: Ramzes

Alternatives: Nisha, Gabbi, RTZ

I don’t feel good about picking Ramzes, but he’s been a good farmer. His team is likely to win a fair number of games. Gabbi and Nisha also fit that mold. I think Secret’s average game length might be too short though.

Player with most last hits in a game

Prior Results

  • 2018: Moonn
  • 2017: Reso
  • 2016: Miracle-
  • Epicenter top 20 individual Last hit games: Ramzes 3, Monet 2, Midone 2, Micke 2, Ceb 2, Ace, Gabbi, Nisha, Ace, Ori, Miracle, qojqva, NoOne, Setsu
  • 7.19-7.22 top 20 CS games at majors: Razmes 2, Monet 2, Gabbi 2, Moo, Nisha, RTZ, Sylar, Abed, Midone

TI8 pick: Resolution

Alternatives: SCCC, Ramzes

I felt good about that top 3, but let me tell you it wasn’t close. SCCC was the only one of the 3 to crack the top 10 at #6. This is a crap shoot for sure, but I sort of expected to do at least a little bit better than 1 out of the top 10.

TI9 pick: Monet

Alternatives: Razmes, Gabbi, Nisha

I’m taking a gamble here and going with Monet. RNG didn’t get that many games at either Epicenter or the whole season and yet he’s near the top. They love long game and chinese carries get a lot of time to farm. But ultimately, this is gonna be who plays the really long AM or Naga or Arc Warden game.

Player with most GPM in a game

Prior Results

  • 2018: XXS
  • 2017: Ana
  • 2016: w33
  • Epicenter top 20 GPM games as alchemist: Somnus, Armel,Sumail, Noone
  • 7.19-7.22 top 20 individual GPM games as alchemist: Sumail 2, Somnus, Armel, Timado, Ace Noone

TI8 picks: Sumail

Alternatives: Paparazi, SCCC, Miracle, Ame

So XXS got it last year because guess what? he played Alchemist the most. Lesson here is it doesn’t matter how good or bad your team is if you play Alch enough times. Sumail btw had the 4th, 6th and 7th best gpm games. Not surprisingly those were on alchemist.

TI9 picks: Sumail

Alternative: Somnus

I mean forget who has a 900 GPM game as Arc warden. I think there’s going to be Alchs picked. Therefore that’s all that matters.

Player with highest GPM avg

Prior Results

  • 2018: Miracle
  • 2017: Ana
  • 2016: IceIceIce
  • Epicenter: Armel, Ramzes, Paparazi, Nisha, Monet, Ame, Miracle
  • MDL Disneyland: Ace, Miracle, RTZ, Ramzes Ame, Nisha
  • Dreamleague: Ame, Nisha, Paparazi, Ramzes, Ace
  • Chongqing: Ame, RTZ, Ramzes, Paparazi, Nisha
  • Kuala Lumpur: RTZ, Nisha, Ramzes, Gabbi, Abed
  • 7.19-7.22: RTZ, Ame, Nisha, Ramzes, Miracle, Monet

TI8 pick: Resolution

Alternatives: Ramzes, Miracle

Reso finished 5th. Not too bad and Miracle obviously won. The top 6 were half Alch players and half position 1s. So take that into consideration

TI9 pick: Ame

Alternatives: Ramzes, Miracle, Nisha, RTZ

This is a tough one. On the one hand you want the team that wins. But you also want the team that has longer games. LGD doesn’t have games that are that long, but Ame has been at/near the top all season. I think Ramzes is my second choice and I could still see myself changing to him.

Player that plays the Most different heroes

Prior Results

  • 2018: Midone
  • 2017: Miracle-
  • 2016: Faith_bian, Iceice, Miracle-
  • Epicenter: NoOne, Mind Control, Tie (Miracle, Ace, Ame, Kuro)
  • MDL Disneyland: PPD, Ame, Ace, Mind Control
  • Dreamleague: Ramzes, Solo, Tie (Jabz, Noone)
  • Chongqing: Zai, MidOne, Nisha
  • Kuala Lumpur: Fata, Tie (Rodjer, Solo, Zai, Cr1t, Midone, Sumail)
  • 7.19-7.22 Major totals: Zai, NoOne Tie (Solo, Chalice, Midone, Fata)

Ti9 Hero Picks

TI8 picks: Ramzes

Alternative: Miracle

Ramzes was pretty far off here, but Miracle was tied for #2.

TI9 picks: Zai

Alternatives: Midone, Miracle, Ame

Another crap shoot, but ideally you want to pick a player who plays multiple positions. Miracle is a likely candidate for this in the past, but I think it’s likely he’ll play almost entirely safelane so that decreases my desire to pick Miracle. MidOne is still a strong option, but I’m going with Zai because he does play a sort of position 3 and 4 hybrid and has heroes from both.

Tournament Predictions

Number of games played at the Main event

Prior Results

  • 2018: 47/60
  • 2017: 47/60
  • 2016: 47/60
  • Epicenter: 49/60
  • MDL Disneyland: 51/60
  • Dreamleague: 52/60
  • Chongqing: 46/60
  • Kuala Lumpur: 49/60

TI8 pick: 45-49

Alternative: 50-54

EZ.

TI9 pick: 45-49

Alternative: 50-54

I mean all 3 previous TIs and 3/5 majors are in 45-49 so that seems like the easy choice. However, this year I think it’s closer to 50-54 than it has been before. Still I’m sticking with 45-49.

Total number of heroes picked

Prior Results

  • 2018: 107
  • 2017: 107
  • 2016: 105
  • Epicenter: 105
  • MDL: 97
  • Dreamleague: 96
  • Chongqing: 88
  • Kuala lumpur: 95

TI8 pick: 101+

Alternative: 91-100

EZ

TI9 pick: 101+

Alternative: 91-100

For whatever reason (probably longer group stage), TI usually has more heroes picked than your average major. So that probably means 101+ especially since Epicenter was over 100. But 4/5 majors did drop below 100 so I can justify 91-100, just historically it still seems like over 100 is the right call.

Total number of heroes banned

Prior Results

  • 2018: 91
  • 2017: 97
  • 2016: 82
  • Epicenter: 91
  • MDL Disneyland: 85
  • Dreamleague: 86
  • Chongqing: 76
  • Kuala Lumpur: 76

TI8 pick: 81-90

Alternative: 91-100

I ended up being 1 off on this one. I don’t feel too bad about it.

TI9 pick: 91-100

Alternative: 81-90.

Nearly a coin flip. But I’m going to go high this year. TI has more teams and more games. Epicenter is also the best guess for a TI meta.

Most combined total kills in a game

Prior Results

  • 2018: 108
  • 2017: 101-110
  • 2016: 117
  • Epicenter: 102
  • MDL Disneyland: 92
  • Dreamleague: 79

TI8 pick: 101-110

Alternatives: 111-120, 91-100

Nailed it.

TI9 pick: 101-110

Alternatives: 91-100

Okay, so this one is really random. I didn’t nail it so much as get lucky last year. At this point I guess I should go with the Epicenter record since that’s the most like TI. But do what you want.

Longest game of the tournament

Prior Results

  • 2018: 81:52
  • 2017: 100+
  • 2016: 76:57
  • Epicenter: 76:08, 68:12, 67:54
  • MDL Disneyland: 62:24, 62:05, 61:48
  • Dreamleague: 72:29, 62:12, 60:05

TI8 pick: 80-89:59

Alternatives: 70-79:59, 90-99:59, 100+

Ended up getting this one right, But not by much.

TI9 pick: 80-89:59

Alternatives: 70-79:59, 90-99:59

Epicenter games were longer than MDL and Dreamleague so I think going under 70 is a real mistake. In this case you’re just predicting an outlier and it’s TI so I’m going a bit long.

Shortest game of the tournament

Prior Results

  • 2018: 16:59
  • 2017: 15-20
  • 2016: 15:28
  • Epicenter: 18:08, 20:10, 22:27
  • MDL Disneyland: 19:18, 22:14, 22:23
  • Dreamleague: 17:28, 20:52, 21:33

TI8 pick: 15-19:59

Alternative: 20-24:59

This one was an easy pick and it worked out.

TI9 pick:15-19:59

Alternative: 20-24:59

I’ll say exactly what I said last year because it was exactly right. I think 15-19:59 is the smartest choice, but the fact that so many of the majors barely had short games is a bit concerning. However, the group stage at TI is so long that I think some teams will gg out early in a game to prevent fatigue. Most of those other majors did not have as long a group stage.

Most kills by a hero in a game

Prior Results

  • 2018: 31
  • 2017: 23-25
  • 2016: 23
  • Epicenter: 22, 21, 20
  • MDL Disneyland: 23, 21, 20
  • Dreamleague: 20, 20, 20

TI8 pick: 26+

Alternative: 23-25

I got this one, but I don’t feel great about it. Sumail’s 31 kills was the only game that happened in 26+, but I’ll take it.

TI9 pick: 23-25

Alternative: 26+

I’m going low this year. Not a single game topped 23 in the last 3 majors. And only 1 game at TI has been 26+ in the past 3 TIs. So 23-25 I go.

Most deaths by a hero in a game

Prior results

  • 2018: 18
  • 2017: 20
  • 2016: 17
  • Epicenter: 17, 17, 14
  • MDL Disneyland: 18, 15, 15
  • Dreamleague: 16, 13, 13

TI8 pick: 18-20

Alternative: 15-17

It was close to a tossup.

TI9 pick: 18-20

Alternative: 15-17

It’s still close to a tossup. Just remember that TI has more games than a major so there’s more chances to get an outlier.

Most assists by a hero in a game

Prior Results

  • 2018: 35 (EDIT: My source was wrong on this one (I had 45 here). It was 35 by FY.
  • 2017: 36+
  • 2016: 36
  • Epicenter: 39, 37, 35
  • MDL Disneyland: 34, 34, 31
  • Dreamleague: 37, 34, 31

TI8: 36+

EDIT: This one was actually wrong. It was 35 last year. Darn! But It’s always going to be right in that 34+ area and I’d do 36+ again if I had to.

TI9 pick: 36+

Oh wait I do get to do it again =). Only MDL Disneyland would have denied us this year and I’m willing to take that risk especially since TI will have nearly twice the games that a major has.

Most GPM by a hero in a game

Prior Results

  • 2018: 1000+
  • 2017: 1000+
  • 2016: 1090
  • Epicenter: 1104, 1101, 1064
  • MDL Disneyland: 988, 957, 937
  • Dreamleague: 1094, 1021, 965

TI8 pick: 1000+

Alternative: 900-999

There was an Alch. I got it right.

TI9 pick: 1000+

Alternative: 900-999

I predict there will be an Alch

Closing Thoughts

If you got this far, congratulations! I hope you enjoyed the read. A few quick notes before you go:

  • Remember to lock in your predictions early. You can always change them later, but imagine waiting too long and not getting those precious battle points!
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Thanks for reading. Good luck in your predictions!

And last of all, go VP!!!!

I am certain anyone following competitive Dota for a while has a profound feeling we just witnessed something special and deeply valuable. Not only in the context of the game and the competition, but in the context of human life in general.

OG’s achievement cannot be overstated – they stand on a summit no other team has ever managed to conquer. Holding the Aegis of Champions two times in a row is an incredible feat in any context.

Yet, what makes their story transcend beyond the realm of Dota is that they were triumphant while representing the deep human values of friendship, loyalty, trust, creativity, and humility.

OG are the champions of our community not only because they are the best Dota players. They are our champions because they embody the very best values this game can bring out of us all.

This is the last installment of the TI9 Meta series. I most certainly don’t claim to have complete understanding of the amazing games that the teams played for us. I believe, however, that it’s very interesting to try to delve into the strategic details to fully appreciate the ingenuity of the people pouring their heart and soul into the game.

While thisarticle is about OG, it takes two to tango. I’ll start with the losers bracketfinals because I believe there is a very interesting and significant continuitybetween the two series.

I think the LGD vs Liquid games showcased veryvisibly how big of a role faith plays in drafting and how it can win and losegames:

In game 1,both teams started with a non-surprising meta opening and completed awell-rounded draft out of it. Liquid had Void (the best performing pos. 1 heroon the main stage) and decided to combine it with W33’s Tinker. Tinker isoff-meta right now, but they had played it before, and Tinker is quitesynergistic with Void.

LGD,however, used the fact that they had last pick brilliantly: they moved Gyro tothe mid lane and drafted Specre, who is a hard counter to Tinker. Moreover,Liquid lacked the tools to heavily pressure the Spectre early on in theirlineup as Void and Tinker are not very aggressive cores. Tinker needs time tofarm, while Void is restricted by the long CD on Chrono.

The gamefinished as planned for LGD - Spectmanaged to carry them to victory. What was unexpected, however, was how greatCentaur did in this game. Even after a very rough 0-3 start, he was able to comeback and even was the highest net worth hero in the early-mid game, whichhelped him have an extremely high impact.

Thisgave LGD a lot of faith in the Centaur pick, so in game 2 they first-picked itfor Chalice:

In thesecond game, Liquid gave W33 Templar Assassin as the last pick for their team –a hero he’s been quite successful on in this tournament and a good counter toLife Stealer, who lacks the tools to remove Refraction and is vulnerable toarmor reduction.

LGD triedto use their last pick in the same way they did in the first game – by pickinga direct counter to one of the center-pieces of Liquid’s draft. Huskar wassupposed to counter W33’s TA and win LGD the series.

Things,however, didn’t go as planned. LGD’s aggressive draft was slowly building up asignificant resource advantage, but they didn’t manage to finish the game fastenough, Huskar fell-off, and Liquid managed to claim the victory in the lategame with their better-scaling cores.

Thefact that Liquid won a game with TA when she was “hard-countered” gave Liquid alot of faith in the hero and in the next game they drafted her as a 2ndpick, theoretically giving LGD a lot of time to try to counter her again.

Let’s go a bit more in-depth on TA:

TA is asnowballing semi-carry. She wins her lane, gets her core items, hits a verystrong mid game timing (Deso, Blink, BKB), and ideally takes map control, Rosh,and the game.

The theorybehind countering her with Huskar is that he will destroy her in the lane,which would not allow her to snowball and hit her timing. This would reduce heroverall impact a great deal. (Burning Spears counter her Refraction directly -they remove the charges. Moreover, she has short range, so it’s very hard forher to take last hits without getting constantly harassed.)

TA,however, is actually not as reliant on winning the mid matchup as she once was.She actually finds most of her farm in the jungle – her AoE attacks and highdamage help her clear stacks very efficiently, so even if Huskar beats her inthe lane, she can recover in the jungle quite quickly and still have a decentimpact in the game.

To top itoff, TA has good talents that make her better in the late game than she oncewas. This means that she isn’t as reliant on winning the game during hermid-game timing and she is quite comfortable going late (she certainly canout-scale the Huskar, who is even vulnerable to her nuke damage.)

Picks

So, theoutcome of game 2 gave Liquid the confidence to draft TA as a 2ndpick. What worse can they throw at her than Huskar?

LGD wentback to a lot of comfort picks for their last game (most notably Somnus SF andFY Rubick), but this time around it was Liquid who used the last few picks inthe draft brilliantly. Winter Wyvern was an underused hero this TI, but ColdEmbrace is a hard counter to Void’s Chronosphere. Moreover, the long-rangeWinter’s Curse is a great setup for Ravage (a devastating team-fight combo wemanaged to see). To top it off, Liquid got their hands on a last-pick WraithKing. After Mineski and Infamous dropped out of the tournament, Wraith Kingstopped being as highly contested, so he managed to slip through withoutgetting banned. WK is great against Chrono and the nuke damage of SF - if LGD’scores blow all of their cooldowns on WK’s first life, they wouldn’t have theresources to kill him a second time.

The plan worked out, and Liquid managed to claimthe series to the immense disappointment of 18k Chinese fans in the arena.

So, by the end of the loser bracket finals,Liquid had two wins with TA. One versus a last-pick hard counter (Huskar), andone where they 2nd picked the hero.Needlessto say, theteam acquired a lot offaith in TA in this meta.

Moreover, in game 3 vs LGD, Liquid claimedanother convincing victory with Tide, giving them a flawless 5-0 record withthe hero.As a consequence, TA + Tide became apivotal part of their grand finals strategy.

Being very confident in those two picks played abig role but sadly for Liquid – not a positive one.

In game one,Liquid used the fact that they have last pick to get a win with Meepo.

Meepo wasLiquid’s checkmate (cheesy) last-pick which they had successfully used this TIand he fit the game very well: OG had decided to give Ana’s hard carry Spect atry, and Meepo counters Spectre’s slow tempo very well. He out-farms herseverely, takes over the map (leaves Spect little space to farm), and breaksthe base before she is able to come online.

Even thoughLiquid won the game, it certainly didn’t go as planned. OG were able to stallthe game for a long time and Spect reached the breaking point in which Meepowas no longer the strongest hero on the map and OG were ready to secure thevictory.

Ti Pick

After amisplay on their part, however, Liquid used TA + Meepo’s very high buildingdamage to run down the mid lane and evaporate OG’s Ancient. OG were too slow toreact and lost a game they had a firm grasp on.

This game was all about the Meepo strat versusthe Spect strat, so it’s unlikely that Tide and TA’s impact came into question.It seems they did their part adequately, so Liquid preserved their confidence inthe two picks.

Consequently,in game two, Liquid opened up with Tide + TA as their first two picks.

OG, however, had a very different approach tocountering TA and Tide than LGD.

Youwouldn’t traditionally think of a Lifestealer + TA + Tide lineup as a slowlineup. In fact, all three cores have a very strong mid-game timing.

In the early game, however, Liquid actually hasa slow and passive draft.

Aswe already mentioned, TA wants tospend the early game farming the jungle until she has a few core items. Shewants to fight after she has farmed Deso + Blink, and ideally even BKB.

Tide isn’t aiming for an item timing (although theutility items certainly help), but what restrains his aggression is the huge CDon Ravage. He can afford to play aggressively with Ravage, but once the spellis on CD, he usually also wants to use Anchor Smash to farm waves and camps.

Lifestealer doesn’t have a big CD and he can certainly beplayed aggressively, but the meta pos. 1 Lifestealer goes for Midas and usuallylikes to farm undisturbed until he gets Radiance.

Ti Pickling

Lastbut not least, Liquid have a pos. 4Enigma. As we all know, a dedicated jungler makes your lanes weaker.Moreover, like Tide, Enigma likes to play around an ultimate with a big CD.Finally, Enigma also needs items to fight comfortably. A long-duration BlackHole is almost impossible without BKB versus a good team.

So, OG countered Liquid’s lineup by drafting ateam with a much, much higher tempo.

None ofOG’s cores needs expensive items to start fighting. Ember just needs lvl6 and ahigh-enough level in his other spells to start searching for kills. Monkey Kingis essentially created to run at heroes thanks to Jingu Mastery, and all heneeds to succeed is some control from his teammates. Their position 4 hero, theTiny of Jerax, is the opposite of what Liquid have. While Enigma wants to farm,all a pos. 4 Tiny wants to do is to play aggressively and attempt to get kills.It also certainly helps that Omni is there to protect his teammates with hisspells when they decide to play overly-aggressive.

Besides thetempo of the whole draft, OG also had very good direct hero matchups. Ember isa decent laner against Tidehunter – Anchor Smash deals physical damage, so itcannot be used to remove Ember’s Flame Guard. This means Ana can use it tocontinuously damage Mind Control in the lane. Moreover, Grimstroke is veryuseful versus Tide, because Kraken Shell cannot dispel Grimstroke’s Silence (Phantom’sEmbrace). Finally, OG has Omni to counter Lifestealer and TA’s high physicaldamage output in fights.

By playing extremely aggressively, OGcompletely dismantled Liquid.

(Strategy aside, there is a lot to be said aboutOG’s execution, but more on that below.)

Game 3 was,IMO, the pivotal game in this series. This was the game in which Liquid shouldhave concluded that OG know how to deal with Tide + TA. This was also the gamein which they should have tried as hard as possible to deal with the problemsof game 2 - to secure a great start of the game to prevent OG from playing asaggressively as they did in game 2.

Liquid,however, drafted Tide + TA once again. Instead of Lifestealer, they went withJugg, but Jugg is a similar hero to Lifestealer in terms of tempo and doesn’tmake Liquid’s overall strategy very different. They didn’t have a supportEnigma this time around, but it didn’t make a huge difference.

OG useddifferent heroes but the same ideas as in game 2. They played an extremely hightempo game to break Liquid before they are able to hit their timings.

This timethe main drivers of the high tempo were offlane Enchantress who is very capableof constant pressure right from the start of the game (one of the most fearedheroes in the whole tournament), roaming Tiny once again, and a new brilliantlast pick – pos. 2 Pugna. Pugna is quite decent versus TA in the lane thanks toDecrepify. The spell is also a very good defensive mechanism versus TA’sphysical burst damage and Jugg’s Omnislash.

The key, however, is that after winning the lane,Pugna is one of the best tower-pushers in the game. This meant that eachsuccessful aggressive move from OG cost Liquid objectives and a lot of mapcontrol, which lead to a 2nd 20-minute victory in a row from OG (andone of the best performances on Pugna we’ve ever seen from Godson).

By the endof game 3, Liquid were finally aware that Tide + TA wasn’t working out forthem. The problem was they had only one game to try out something different.

It was obvious that OG were demolishing them inthe early game, so the logical thing was to make sure they don’t lose thelanes. They left Tide + TA to the side, and opened up with Omni + Chen – twoheroes who can deal with early-game pressure much better.

They leftIo out of the bans, probably because they had confidence they have a chance tocounter it after successfully countering Secret’s carry Io strat.

They beatSecret’s carry Io with Meepo, but OG wisely banned Meepo in the 2ndban phase, so Liquid had to think of something else.

One of thereasons why Meepo is theoretically good versus a carry Io strat is because hehits his timing before Io. A pos. 1 Bristleback with two healers behind him(Chen + Omni) might have a similar effect. He is able to fight from very earlyon and could possibly break the enemy base before Io is ready. Chen + Omni will make him nearly immortal with the heals, but also with a Pipe and the magic resistance auras from creeps that Chen can convert and bring with the team (Io mainly deals magic damage with his Balls and Aghs).

As we know,things didn’t go as planned. Topson’s Gyro proved to be a big problem, Liquidwere unable to break the base, and once Io hit his Agh’s + lvl15 timing (andGyro got Diffusal), OG took the game, the series, and the Aegis of Champions.

A lot of people are saying that letting OG pickIo was an obvious mistake, but in a way, Liquid had to try to beat it. There are simply not enough bans to get ridof all of OG’s strategies. The problem was, however, that this game was anelimination game for them. IMO, a quicker realization that they need to changesomething fundamentally after game 2 would have given Liquid at least one moregame to try to figure OG out. For example, something they didn’t have a chanceto try was to let through OG’s late game strats (Magnus) while banning OG’shigh-tempo heroes. There is no guarantee that this would have worked and theseries could have still ended 3-1 for OG, but at the same time one more attemptto figure them out is insanely valuable and it could have made the series morecompetitive.

Watchinggame 2 and 3, it felt like pro Dota has gone a full circle.

In aconversation with Puppey a long, long time ago (before TI3) he mentioned thatone of the biggest innovations of pro Dota was the realization that objectives areway more important than kills. In fact, his main role in the old Na’Vi team wasto control the tower-diving davai spirit of the CIS players and to make surethat every aggressive move they make leads to objectives and map control.

In game two of TI9’s grand finals, however, OGwere diving the enemy base when the enemy T1 towers were still standing, whichseems to run contrary to the every basic principle we know about Dota.

Theindividual play of everyone on the team was top-tier, but it seemed that thisis not the key to their success in this seemingly insane playstyle. They stillmade mistakes and died every once in a while, but this didn’t seem to shift themomentum too much.

I believe there are two main factors that makethis possible:

Not a stock photo, but OG during the draft.

OG arefully consciously aware of the timingsin the game. They know when their team is strong, and when the enemy teamis weak. The easiest example is the Io Agh’s + lvl15 talent timing: regardlessif they are ahead or behind, they know that they are strong and they startplaying aggressively to take control of the game when they hit it.

The samerule fully applies to game 2 and 3 of the grand finals. Even though the laningstage isn’t even over yet, they know Liquid need more space and time to comeonline while their own lineup doesn’t. Because of this, they are comfortable tostart playing hyper-aggressively far earlier than anyone anticipates them to.To make sure they use their advantage to its fullest potential, the pressurenever relents even after the occasional misplay and death (dying once doesn’tmean your timing window is over just yet).

Ingame 2, they dove behind all possible towers simply because they had terribletower push, and diving was the only way to continue applying pressure duringtheir timing window. Takingrisks and diving towers was a way better option than playing safe and lettingLiquid’s cores farm their jungle undisturbed. In game 3, thanks to Pugna, theystill played hyper-aggressively, but managed to take objectives along with thekills.

Thesecond and arguably the most important part of being able to play thisaggressively successfully is complete trust in your teammates:

Forexample, when you play Omni together with a tower-diving core, you become extremelyaware of just how short-range the spells of this hero are. There is no way toplay safe with Omni when your core wants to play aggressive. Often in pubs, ifyou’re uncertain the aggressive playstyle is the right thing to do (i.e. youdon’t trust your core), this would lead to miscommunications and deaths. Ceb,however, managed to always be in range to help out his teammates, even whenthey were diving towers T2 towers at 10 minutes in like madmen.

Thesame applies to other more unusual situations. 1v1 mid matchups tend to bequite clinical in Dota. Two heroes try to out-play each other for last-hits andharass. The only thing that disrupts this is the occasional gank rotation bythe supports, but even this interruption is temporary. When your position 4Tiny stays in the mid lane for extended periods of time and chases the enemyhero behind the tower Tossing him around like a Basketball, however, the usual1v1 mid situation flies out the window. Topson, however, seemed to be quitecomfortable in this strange state of affairs and was able to trust Jerax andmatch his aggression very well, which led to a big advantage for OG. The twoplayers were able to play off each other very well and the enemy midlaner wasmiles away out of his comfort zone.

Ina nutshell, as N0tail himself said – “everything can work in Dota”. If you havea clear idea about what you need to do and if you fully trust in the decisionsof your teammates (this means to continue trusting in them even if their ideasoccasionally don’t work out), the result could be quite beautiful.

The Dotathat Liquid, LGD, and most teams in the world are playing certainly looks more understandableand clinical than what OG are doing. That’s why everyone on the broadcast teamliked the idea that Liquid are approaching Dota as a science, while OG – asart.

The teamthat managed to give me a similar feeling when I was watching them play wereTI6 Wings. While Wings were able to make this impression mainly with theirinsane drafts, OG (who have equally insane but less diverse drafts) are able togive this feeling with their play as well.

Callingthem the best team of all time is certainly easy with their two consecutivechampionships. In my opinion, however, they deserve this title also because ofthe level of Dota they showcased at this TI. It felt like they are a few levelsabove everyone else both strategically (knowledge) and in terms of team playand execution (trust).

OG certainly raised the bar a lot and showedthat things are possible in Dota none of us have ever imagined.

I hope their incredible examplemanages to inspire a lot of us to chase our dreams and to try to find the next level in whatever we aredoing. Equally importantly - to remain humble, and to tryto be good people along the way!

Thanks you forreading! It was an absolute pleasure covering this TI and I hope some of youfound my articles insightful or at the very least - interesting.

If you are one of these people, give us a followon our social media (below) to stay in touch when we post something new!